The Colbert Bump is Real, Colbert’s Nation Not What He Thinks it is

Stephen Colbert has mentioned that he’s having trouble getting guests during the writer’s stike. We find this puzzling, given the supposed benefits of the Colbert Bump. Does being on the Colbert Show really provide a bump—a critical leap that vaults a writer, or a politician to superstardom?

We know that Colbert isn’t a big fan of “facts,” and only needs his gut to tell him the Colbert Bump is real. At Juice, we let the data decide what’s real or not, so our apologies to Stephen for not taking his word for it. Intrigued, Juice Analytics set out to find out the truth. We gathered data about Amazon sales rank for 20 authors that appeared on his show in recent months. How did those ranks change in the days immediately before and after the authors’ appearance on the show?

Amazon Sales Rank of Colbert Guests

Hmmm, there might be something there but those sales ranks don’t tell us much. Fortunately for Stephen, some “eggheads” have worked out roughly how Amazon sales rank corresponds to actual book sales. We calculated the sales, and normalized the data so that the week prior to appearing on the Colbert Report was equal to 1.0. Here’s a picture.

Projected Sales of Colbert Guests

That looks like a bump, Conan. In fact, being on the Colbert Report increases sales by 10 times on average. That bump doesn't last forever, but, let's face it, what does?

We also wanted to know, what kinds of books are Colbert’s audience going crazy for? After all, Colbert is well known as a rock-solid conservative. He’s tight with the Bush Administration. Even though he debates a few liberal (“pinko”) authors now and then, most of his guests are writers of pop-intellectual studies of the Gladwellian persuasion.

Here are the authors and how we categorized them:

Pinkos: Jessica Valenti, Full Frontal Feminism: A Young Woman’s Guide to Why Feminism Matters, Wesley K. Clark, A Time to Lead: For Duty, Honor and Country, Robert Shrum, No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner

‘Publicans: Tom DeLay, No Retreat, No Surrender: One American’s Fight

Pop Essayists: Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness, Daniel B. Smith, Muses, Madmen, and Prophets: Rethinking the History, Science, and Meaning of Auditory Hallucination, Michael Gershon, The Second Brain: A Groundbreaking New Understanding of Nervous Disorders of the Stomach and Intestine, John J. Mearsheimer, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century, Frank J. Sulloway, Born to Rebel: Birth Order, Family Dynamics, and Creative Lives, Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Richard Preston, The Wild Trees: A Story of Passion and Daring, Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Bjorn Lomberg, Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming, Andrew Keen, The Cult of the Amateur: How Today’s Internet is Killing Our Culture, Michael Wallis, The Lincoln Highway: Coast to Coast from Times Square to the Golden Gate

Popular: Stephen Colbert, I Am America (And So Can You!), John Grisham, Playing For Pizza: A Novel, Tina Brown, The Diana Chronicles

How much of a bump did each of these groups receive?

Colbert Bump by Category of Guests

It’s a shock! Liberals and high-minded eggheads do better than popular or conservative books. I’m not sure if Colbert knows this, but his audience isn’t who he thinks they are.

Here are all the authors and their normalized sales around the time of their appearance on the Colbert Report.

Valenti Clark Shrum DeLay Gilbert Smith Gershon Mearsheimer Friedman Sulloway Diamond Taleb Preston Gladwell Lomberg Keen Wallis Colbert Grisham Brown

This post was a collaborative effort of the entire Juice team. Pete Skomoroch concocted the idea, wrote copy, and found the study linking Amazon Sales Rank to actual sales. Zach data mined. David May whipped up elegant, instant visualizations. Sal Uryasev munged data.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License. All source code is released under a BSD License unless otherwise specified.

28 comments | Show all comments only the last 5 are shown


April 28, 2008
mike said:

oops already mentioned, perhaps the suggestion of a control group would be best, comparing a media blitz without Colbert Report to those that appear on the show. it would be difficult to separate out the other factors though, like maybe someone that chooses to go on the CR is also more effective in their other promotions. possibly if there were enough data points, then other effects would be insignificant?? ;)
or maybe find someone that ONLY goes on the Colbert Report, a clean sample sort of :D


May 30, 2008
Aaron Deyfer said:

great article!
one question: how did you manage to get the historical sales rank data? Did you gather the data "manually" using AWS over time or do you use another service?


March 4, 2009
Pete Skomoroch said:

Aaron,

I described the data gathering process in a post at the Data Wrangling blog: http://www.datawrangling.com/the-colbert-bump-in-amazon-data I used a python script and http://www.titlez.com/welcome.aspx

-Pete


March 12, 2009
John said:

Seems very truthy


August 22, 2009
kw said:

colbert's audience are those who are liberal minded, and a lot of college/uni students... I believe it's quite similar to the left leaning crowd who watches jon stewart's "the daily show." colbert is very much aware of this, hence his choosing of guests that not only please the audience (even notice how often the studio audience cheers the guest) but allow his conservative pundit character (the conservative colbert is only a tv persona) to verbally spar with the guests. if the guests know to play along, the results are usually comical... if they aren't aware of colbert's character, sometimes the interviews just turn awkward.

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Analytics Roundup: Gladwell drops and Tokyo pops

Tipped over: social influence "tipping point" theory debunked
Gladwell's model posits that a few hyperconnected "influentials" are the key to the runaway viral spread of fads, fashions, ideas, and behaviors. What turns out to be the deciding factor is not the "influentials," but the people who are easily influenced.

Information Architects Japan ยป Blog Archive ยป Web Trend Map 2008 Beta
Map of the internet using Tokyo area subway as the charting coordinates,

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Measure the Internet, Map the Internet

One area we’ve been paying particular attention to recently has been the internet traffic for different web site categories. Our friends over at comScore Inc. collect a wealth of information for “measurement of the myriad ways in which the Internet is used and the wide variety of activities that are occurring online.” Nice alliteration, guys.

Using some of the data they’ve allowed us to share with you, we had the bright idea to stuff it into our most favoritest charting type, the treemap. And what’s better than a chart? Answer: an interactive chart with a toggle button.

You’ll need to know a few things to really Juice the data:

  • The map is based on unique visitors by site for August 2007 and November 2007.
  • Red means a decrease in unique visitors over that three month time period and green means an increase. Black means there is no change.
  • You can click on the category headers to zoom into each category. Click on the category header again to zoom back out.
  • We provide two views of the data: the default shows just the top ten sites in each category. However, for nearly all categories, sites outside the top 10 account for over 50% of the visitation in the category (the exceptions were Search, Portals, and Auctions where the top players dominate traffic). A checkbox adds “All Others” and gives you a better sense of the size of each category. You can toggle these two views using the checkbox just below the map.
  • Due to some confidentiality restrictions that we’re under regarding the raw data, we couldn’t show other metrics that would really make this visualization sing—but I bet if you contacted comScore, they’d be glad to discuss with you.
  • A few tech notes. The treemap is adapted from Josh Tynjala’s capable open-source Flex Treemap component. Site images are provided by Amazon.com’s Alexa site thumbnail service.

So, without further ado, take a gander at our latest liberated data:

http://internetmap.juiceanalytics.com/

There’s so much information here, you won’t have any trouble drawing your own conclusions, but here are a few conversation starters:

  • Notice that there was a distinct increase in retail web visitors leading up to the holiday seasons.
  • Surprise! eBay owns auctions
  • Not too good of a showing for those online gambling sites; travel either.
  • Sports traffic is up… but not for the MLB.com site. Oh yeah, baseball season is over.

Enjoy.

Disclosure: comScore is a client of Juice Inc.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License. All source code is released under a BSD License unless otherwise specified.

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January 28, 2008
Friedbeef said:

Hi - does the app work in Firefox? Because I'm having problems loading it up with the FF and Flock browser. Works OK on IE7 tho....


January 29, 2008
derek said:

What's the history of the use of black in treemaps? It seems to run counter to the normal tendency for info visualisation to have white as the background.


January 30, 2008
Brian Timoney said:

Very interesting use of Flex components; quite sticky indeed.

I guess it's cold comfort to the newly laid off, but I was struck how prevalent Yahoo was across a number of different categories...

Brian


January 31, 2008
Fubiz said:

Excelent title!


February 12, 2008
Fin said:

Interesting google doesn't come up in the portal rankings. I use my google homepage about 60 times a day. It is as much a portal as Windows live.

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Analytics Roundup: Infovis Grabbag

175+ data and information visualization examples and resources

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New Year’s Resolution: Tufte and the iPhone

Edward Tufte has produced a illuminating video tour of the user interface of the iPhone. The video illustrates Tufte’s struggles to come to grips with the difference between dynamic screen resolution and the resolution of printed paper. Tufte is prone to grandiose pronouncements, like this one:

All history of improvements in human communication is written in terms of improvements in resolution: to produce, for viewers of evidence, more bits per unit time, and more bits per unit area. Slideware is contrary to that history. Trading in reductions in resolution for user convenience or for pitching may be useful in mass market products or in commercial art, but not for technical communications. The solution is not to rescue slideware design; the solution is to use a different, better, and content-driven presentation method. On this solution, see our thread PowerPoint Does Rocket Science—and Better Techniques for Technical Reports — Tufte Nov 10 2006

Somehow, I don’t think the importance of the Gutenberg Bible related to it showing “more bits per unit area.” Quick, count the “bits per unit area.”

Gutenberg bible courtesy of Wikipedia

Illustrated bible courtesy of Wikipedia

It didn’t take bits per unit area to revolutionize communication in the past and it won’t in the future either. The iPhone is a tremendously engaging information device and points the way forward for information displays. Here’s what the iPhone does well:

Maximize screen real estate: Controls are only visible when needed, fading away gently when you are concentrating on content. Tufte furiously neologizes, calling this “computer information debris.” Control junk is more apt, more terse, more Tuftian.

Direct manipulation: As Tufte says: information is the interface. Filtering and choosing should take place in the context of direct manipulation. A good essay on the possibilities of direct manipulation can be found here.

Fun: Above all, information can be fun and engaging to navigate. Tufte condemns Apple’s stock ticker for having “cartoony” and PowerPoint-like displays and offers an improved version (with 5 digits of precision). Apple’s cheery display offers a more entertaining, usable interface for day-to-day usage.

With our empathy for the day-to-day troubles of the business person seeking insight in data, it’s frustrating listening to Tufte. He is clearly an academic, with academic interests and academic timeframes. As much as his work is respected and inspirational within business circles, he makes little effort to enable his message to be implemented.

Good Tufte: Clutter and overload are not an attribute of information, they are failures of design. If the information is in chaos, don’t start throwing out information, instead fix the design.

Bad Tufte: “…the conclusion of sparkline analysis in Beautiful Evidence, where the idea is to make our data graphics at least operate at the resolution of good typography (say 2400 dpi).” http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msgid=0002NC&topicid=1 *Ed: At least 2400 dpi? Orly?

Mostly right Tufte: “Thus the iPhone got it mostly right.”

Mostly wrong Tufte: “Adobe Illustrator is a big serious program that can do almost anything on the visual field (other than Photoshop an image). Most of my sparkline work was done in Illustrator. Fortunately all graphic designers and graphic design students have the program and know how to use it, so find a colleague who knows about graphic design.” http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msgid=0000Jr&topicid=1&topic=Ask%20E%2eT%2e

It is heartening to see Tufte engage and connect his mental frameworks to our modern, screen-oriented, graphics-accelerated, not graphics-designed world. But the future of information design and interaction belongs to the iPhone, not the printed page.

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3 comments


January 25, 2008
ross said:

Nice post, thanks for making it, I found in interesting and I think it's good that people are prepared to quest Tufte, who seems to have rightly or wrongly some God like stature.
For my part, I have used TyTN's series since mark 1 and these, running windows mobile, have had all of the features (more or less) of the iPhone for some time. Compromise in the key with small devices. - Untill we get screen that can project into air! :-)
Cheers
Ross


January 25, 2008
mahalie said:

It's always folly to never question anything someone says just because you have a lot of respect for their ideas generally. Yet I see many bloggers flame well-respected experts...probably as traffic bait. So great to hear a voice of reason. Thanks!


January 29, 2008
darrell said:

"To clarify add Detail" - as an example, Tufte adds a satellite weather pattern to augment a weather forecast of X degrees and Partly Cloudy. How does that clarify? You need expertise to interpret it, and it didn't offer analysis / interpretation just raw data (satellite view).

I understand his point if you're presenting to a panel of experts. But the iPhone is sold to consumers, not weather forecasters.

Few of us are weather forecasting expertise (beyond idle speculation). Using the satellite video, a non-expert could probably guess, the degree of cloudy, and perhaps the direction of the wind. Other useful info like wind speeds, wind chill factor, probability of precipitation and temperature are not aided by the satellite visual.

Eye candy; yes. Useful; only to a limited expert audience, and only with additional information not displayed.

"To Clarify; first consider the audience, then add relevant detail."

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Analytics Roundup: Expensive cup of Joe-l

On the Fahrenheit scale, do 0 and 100 have any special meaning
The story of a mixed up metric.

At Last, a $20,000 Cup of Coffee - New York Times
Monstrous $20k coffee brewing system for fanatics, err, I mean, purists.

Five whys - Joel on Software
Incredible blog on system uptime, SLAs, rdiculousness of "Six 9's", black swans, and how superbly FogCreek Software handles customer service issues.

Browser History Timeline
Chronicle of the lives of six popular Web browsers.

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Filling the Gap Between reporting and Reporting

There is little ‘r’ reporting and there is big ‘R’ Reporting, and the difference is vast:

reporting is the stuff that comes straight out of your reporting solution. It gets created by choosing a few parameters and typically shows up as a table of data with an accompanying chart.

Reporting is something altogether different. It is concise set of graphics and data that tell a focused story. It is crafted to focus on the key information and exclude everything else. It may come in the form of a single dashboard or a 20=page deck, but it is always audience-friendly. It is informed by context and provides explantation. Reporting is not about the numbers, it’s about what the numbers tell you.

By analogy, what if we didn’t make a distinction between a raw fish pulled out the sea and a prepared fish dinner? When the waiter slapped a still-squirming sea bass on my plate, I probably wouldn’t take much consolation in getting a deboning knife and a hot plate.

In the wild, the two species of reporting are often confused. To help you identify one from the other, I’ve put together a couple of examples with tell-tale signs:

reporting, the bad kind

Reporting, the good kind

The difference comes down to a gut-feeling: Was this document created to address the questions of a specific audience with a specific problem?

This may be a distinction that is implicitly well-known. My concern is more about explicit acknowledgement of the gap between them. And in the process:

1. Avoiding passing off reporting as Reporting. In particular, vendors who offer reporting tools think they are delivering the ability to communicate performance, when in fact they are mostly providing the raw materials.

2. Recognizing the level of effort required to transform reporting into Reporting. Analysts spend a huge amount of time filling this gap; it is one of the wasteful backwaters of modern enterprises.

This has been a common theme in my recent client discussions. People are sick of slogging through their reporting tools to build useful information for management. Ultimately, developing great Reporting requires an understanding of problems, the audience, and thoughtful design. But that doesn’t mean it should be so painful to construct. We are working on a solution to help, but in the meantime here are a few general things we do:

  • Gather data in its cleanest form (CSV instead of heavily formatted XLS, or in the worst cases PDF)
  • Automate data cleaning and manipulation steps using Excel macros and VBA
  • Create repeatable and documented report building processes
  • Try to convincing executives that less reporting can be more valuable
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January 18, 2008
Hadley Wickham said:

But don't you need to go through a lot of reports before you get to the Report? i.e. where do you see the role of exploratory data analysis in which you actually discover the interesting things that you want to communicate to others.
If the role of an analyst isn't to go from raw data to a consistent, convincing story, then what is it?

Or am I misinterpreting by what you mean by little-r reporting?


January 21, 2008
Ben said:

The "good kind report" looks very professional!
I wonder whether it is possible to get a hold of the source file to take a closer look?

Thanks!

B.


January 24, 2008
E. Griffin said:

A great example of data + context/analysis = information. Looks nice too!


January 28, 2008
H8CK said:

I too am curious to see at least an enlarged picture. The second photo seems to be a dashboard.

I like it but, I have to agree Hadley here, ad hoc analysis leads to "R"eporting. Curiousity is the pre-cursor to analysis.


January 30, 2008
Todd said:

We are trying to move the conversation from "we are working too hard and the list is too long" How do we reduce the amount of reports you need to integrate.

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Analytics Roundup: Better presentations

Feltron Eight
Nice example of an optional, but much more interesting annual report could be formatted.

The Steve Jobs 90 Minute Keynote in 60 Seconds - Mahalo
GREAT summarization of the Job MacWorld 2008 keynote—from 90 minutes to 60 seconds. This demonstrates a good example of how to summarize a great deal of information.

Presentation Zen: 6 Presentation tips from a Steve Jobs keynote
6 good presentation points based on Steve Jobs 2008 MacWorld keynote

Meryl.net ยป 70+ PowerPoint and Presentation Resources and Great Examples
Great examples of properly using PowerPoint/Keynote.

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Microsoft says: "BI is Really Hard to Use"

We don’t tend to agree with Microsoft when it comes to data analysis and presentations. In fact, we’ve even been critical of them for misrepresenting data, excessive visual “flair”, missed opportunities to improve Excel, forgetting their power users, subpar presentation tools, and wasteful slide masters.

With all these past differences, I was a little surprised to find that we do share some common ground. Check out the comments (from an article in Internet News) by Peter Klein, CFO for Microsoft’s Business Division in describing the world of business intelligence:

“I’ve talked to a lot of customers about business intelligence and the one thing that they tell me is it’s really hard to use,” said Peter Klein, during at the Credit Suisse conference.

“‘I’m not getting the value out of the investment that I made,’” Klein said customers had complained. “‘I have invested a lot in my back-end systems, and today 10 percent or less of my employees actually touch it, or get access to the data. I’ve got six different BI solutions across multiple different departments, none of which talk to each other. And they’re hard to use, so I’ve got to send people to training for two weeks to learn how to use it.

Finally, we are speaking the same language. Now, I’m curious to see what they are going to do about it.

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2 comments


January 6, 2008
Jock Mackinlay said:

You have to focus on people rather than technology. After all, the business intelligence is for people to do their work and make decisions.


January 7, 2008
Wouter Brandsma said:

And that statement comes from a firm who delivers Reporting Services in Visual Studio as a serious BI tool. That application was never designed for business users, but for developers. Why not integrate the query solution of Reporting Services in Excel as a replacement for MS Query and use Excel. It is a fact that the most used function in any BI tool is "export to Excel" (Microsoft acknowledge that in their BI seminars).

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